Assessing bicycle crash risks controlling for detailed exposure: A Copenhagen case study

Summary

This study examines how weather conditions, visibility and time of day influence bicycle crash risk in Greater Copenhagen, using 4,877 police-reported crashes from 2017–2020 combined with detailed bicycle traffic exposure data. By accounting for cycling volumes through a Palm distribution-based statistical approach, the researchers identify conditions associated with elevated crash risk rather than relying on crash counts alone. The findings indicate increased relative risks at temperatures below 0°C and above 21°C, during poor visibility, and particularly when precipitation coincides with freezing conditions. Increased risks are also associated with morning and afternoon peak periods. The study provides valuable evidence for weather-sensitive cycling safety assessment and supports the development of targeted infrastructure, maintenance and preventive measures to improve year-round cycling safety